Monday, April 8, 2013

The 2013-2014 Red Line!


            I have two passions: sports (college basketball in particular) and social justice. Te one writer who in the past has taken on these subjects of Kyle Whelliston of the Mid-Majority, a website that I have written for extensively the last couple years since Kyle stepped down from writing full-time in recent years. Kyle’s focus is on mid-majors who have a financial disadvantage compared to major conference schools, and the major conference schools win well over 80 percent of the time against our mid-majors that make up the majority of Division I. Overcoming this disadvantage is nearly impossible in the end, as the season always ends with a loss and no national championship for the mid-major. Kyle has defined mid-majors more clearly when others have tried different definitions. Based on the Office of Postsecondary Education’s athletic budget info used for Title IX compliance purposes, Kyle came up with the Red Line. The Red Line determines if you are a mid-major or not. If your conference on average spends over $20 million on sports with at least $2 million of that directly going to men’s basketball, you are above the red line and a major conference. Otherwise, you are a mid-major conference. During the Mid-Majority’s history, eight conferences have met those criteria: the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, PAC 12, Big East, Mountain West, and Conference USA. The Other 24 are your mid-majors.

            But Kyle is not doing the Red Line next year for the Mid-Majority’s final season. We have to come up with our definitions, which is hard. So I have calculated the Red Line for next year based on new OPE data and conference realignment. Here is what we have:

Conference                             Athletic Spending  MBB Budget
1. Big Ten                                                       $81.9 M                                   $6.7 M
2. Southeastern                                               $81.5 M                                   $7.0 M
3. Big 12                                                         $75.7 M                                   $7.2 M
4. Atlantic Coast                                             $66.9 M                                   $7.0 M
5. Pac-12                                                         $66.3 M                                   $5.4 M
6. American Athletic                                       $48.7 M                                   $6.0 M
7. Mountain West                                           $29.7 M                                   $2.7 M
                                                                                                                                                           

8. Conference USA                                        $24.4 M                                   $2.5 M
9. Ivy                                                               $24.3 M                                   $0.9 M
10. Big East                                                    $23.7 M                                   $6.6 M
                                                                                                                                                           

11. Mid-American                                           $22.7 M                                   $1.8 M
12. Colonial                                                     $20.9 M                                   $2.0 M
13. Patriot                                                       $19.9 M                                   $1.7 M
14. West Coast                                                $19.6 M                                   $3.1 M
15. Atlantic 10                                                            $19.0 M                                   $3.3 M
16. Sun Belt                                                    $16.5 M                                   $1.4 M
17. Big West                                                   $16.4 M                                   $1.6 M
18. America East                                             $15.1 M                                   $1.2 M
19. Missouri Valley                                         $14.9 M                                   $2.6 M
20. Southern                                                    $14.1 M                                   $1.4 M
21. Big Sky                                                     $13.9 M                                   $1.2 M
22. Big South                                                  $12.3 M                                   $1.3 M
23. Summit                                                      $12.3 M                                   $1.3 M
24. Northeast                                                  $12.1 M                                   $1.5 M
25. Metro Atlantic                                          $12.1 M                                   $1.7 M
26. Western Athletic                                       $11.5 M                                   $1.5 M
27. Horizon                                                     $11.2 M                                   $1.9 M
28. Ohio Valley                                               $10.8 M                                   $1.2 M
29. Atlantic Sun                                              $9.7 M                                     $1.2 M
30. Southland                                                  $9.5 M                                     $1.0 M
31. MEAC                                                      $8.8 M                                     $1.0 M
32. Great West/Independents/NJIT                $8.2 M                                     $1.4 M
33. SWAC                                                      $7.0 M                                     $0.7 M

            There are a few things to explain particularly that middle section. Conference realignment has been particularly bad the past year, with schools seeking their own piece of what Kyle called the “Sports Bubble”. They are chasing better television contracts and more revenue with new conferences, only to often end up in homes similar to their old places. The extra money spent on such moves with little reward in the future could cause the Sports Bubble to burst for these greedy universities who have lost direction in college athletics. Here is the full list of moves I am accounting for, listed by the highest spending conferences to the lowest. Note that some moves that don’t go into effect for another year are not included (such as Louisville to the ACC, as well as Maryland and Rutgers to the Big Ten).

1. Big Ten
Leaving: None
Entering: None

2. SEC
Leaving: None
Entering: None

3. Big 12
Leaving: None
Entering: None

4. ACC
Leaving: None
Entering: Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

5. PAC 12
Leaving: None
Entering: None

6. American Athletic
Leaving: None as conference is newly formed from old football playing members of Big East. Core members going from Big East to AAC are Louisville, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida, and Cincinnati.
Entering (non-Big East): Memphis, SMU, Temple, Central Florida, Houston

7. Mountain West
Leaving: None
Entering: San Jose State, Utah State

8. Conference USA
Leaving: Central Florida, Houston, SMU, Memphis
Entering: UT San Antonio, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Florida International, Old Dominion, Charlotte

9. Ivy
Leaving: None
Entering: None

10. Big East
Leaving: Louisville, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida, and Cincinnati to split and form American Athletic; also leaving are Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame.
Entering: Butler, Xavier, Creighton

11. Mid-American
Leaving: None
Entering: None

12. Colonial
Leaving: George Mason, Old Dominion, Georgia State
Entering: College of Charleston

13. Patriot
Leaving: None
Entering: Boston University, Loyola (MD)

14. West Coast
Leaving: None
Entering: Pacific

15. Atlantic 10
Leaving: Temple, Charlotte, Butler, Xavier
Entering: George Mason

16. Sun Belt
Leaving: Florida International, North Texas, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee State
Entering: Texas State, UT Arlington, Georgia State

17. Big West
Leaving: Pacific
Entering: None

18. America East
Leaving: Boston University
Entering: UMass-Lowell

19. Missouri Valley
Leaving: Creighton
Entering: None

20. Southern
Leaving: College of Charleston
Entering: None

21. Big Sky
Leaving: None
Entering: None

22. Big South
Leaving: None
Entering: None

23. Summit
Leaving: UMKC
Entering: Denver

24. Northeast
Leaving: Quinnipiac, Monmouth
Entering: None

25. Metro Atlantic
Leaving: Loyola (MD)
Entering: Quinnipiac, Monmouth

26. WAC
Leaving: UT San Antonio, Texas State, UT Arlington, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Utah State, Denver
Entering: UMKC, Grand Canyon, Cal State-Bakersfield, Utah Valley, Chicago State, UT Pan American

27. Horizon
Leaving: None
Entering: None

28. Ohio Valley
Leaving: None
Entering: None

29. Atlantic Sun
Leaving: None
Entering: None

30. Southland
Leaving: None
Entering: Houston Baptist, New Orleans, Incarnate Word, Abilene Christian

31. MEAC
Leaving: None
Entering: None

32. Great West/Independents
Leaving: Cal State-Bakersfield, New Orleans, Houston Baptist, UT Pan American, Utah Valley, Chicago State
Entering: None (note: NJIT is last remaining team in Division I not affiliated without an auto-bid conference)

33. SWAC
Leaving: None
Entering: None

            So there you have it. Maybe that’s why Kyle did not want to do the Red Line this year! Under Kyle’s old rules, both halves of the Big East (the AAC and the New Big East) stay above the Red Line. And nobody goes below the Red Line, not even a weakened Conference USA! The Colonial is still below the Red Line, since as Kyle said last year “on the Red Line is not over it”. But the CAA would have been just over it had George Mason not defected a couple weeks ago. It is hard to believe a conference hit hard by realignment still tightly walks along the Red Line. The CAA numbers are propped up by James Madison (a threat to defect to the Sun Belt) and Delaware, as well as the hockey budget of Northeastern.

            But what do we do about Conference USA and the New Big East? Technically, they should both be over the Red Line. But in the past, Kyle’s numbers always neatly divided the conferences that were all on one side of the Red Line or the other when ranked on athletic spending. But the Ivy League spends more on sports than the New Big East, but obviously is a mid-major with the second lowest men’s basketball budget in Division I. So perhaps we should raise the bar to $25 million on sports and $2.5 million for men’s basketball. After all, the arms race of college sports in chasing the Sports Bubble has left conferences like Conference USA behind. We would have a nice and neat Red Line if we did that. But at the same time, C-USA is also chasing after money with big spending towards FBS football. These schools have lots of money, and whether or not they are successful is not what defines a mid-major.

            Along that line, you might be able to call the New Big East a mid-major. After all, the Ivy League spends more on sports than they do, as does a weakened Conference USA! No member in this new alignment has FBS football (Butler and Georgetown have non-scholarship football, while Villanova is competitive in FCS football). All the money they have practically goes to men’s basketball, a whopping 28 percent of the total conference budget. But at the same time, few conferences and schools can equal these bloated hoops budgets in the New Big East. The New Big East spends more than their old counterparts left in the AAC, and even more than the Pac-12! And the New Big East is only an average of $600,000 behind the Big 12 for the highest spending conference in men’s basketball! How can that possibly be called a mid-major, with powerhouses like Georgetown and Marquette playing in NBA arenas throughout the North? So I would like feedback from whatever readers we may have here. Either in the comments section here or on Twitter @HPUFan, let me know if the Big East and Conference USA should be considered above or below the Red Line. As we prepare for the final season at the Mid-Majority, we need to have a good definition of what constitutes a mid-major so we do not have these conversations during the 2013-14 basketball season.

            Just remember, this is all about money. And I have concluded that Kyle is probably right that overall athletic spending is more important than men’s basketball spending. I know Kyle hates people filling out brackets, but I filled out a few on ESPN as a means of testing what is important for success. I did one bracket where I always picked the team that spends more on athletics, and one where I always picked the team that spends more on men’s basketball. I rooted against these brackets, hoping they would fail. But they did reasonably well. Picking teams based solely on men’s basketball spending would land you in the top half in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge. And picking teams based solely on athletic spending would nearly put you in the top 30 percent. And midway through the regional finals, that bracket based on nothing but athletic spending was in the top one percent of all brackets! That shows you how big money is unfortunately. And the New Big East does not have a lot of it. But they do have more than all of the traditional mid-major conferences, and they spend it largely on basketball. And you can bet that the athletic budgets of recent mid-major powers Creighton, Butler, and Xavier will all go up once they get some of the money from the new television deal with Fox Sports. And when that happens, there might be no doubt whose side of the Red Line the Big East is on. But right now it could go either way. 

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