I
have two passions: sports (college basketball in particular) and social
justice. Te one writer who in the past has taken on these subjects of Kyle
Whelliston of the Mid-Majority, a website that I have written for extensively
the last couple years since Kyle stepped down from writing full-time in recent
years. Kyle’s focus is on mid-majors who have a financial disadvantage compared
to major conference schools, and the major conference schools win well over 80
percent of the time against our mid-majors that make up the majority of
Division I. Overcoming this disadvantage is nearly impossible in the end, as
the season always ends with a loss and no national championship for the
mid-major. Kyle has defined mid-majors more clearly when others have tried
different definitions. Based on the Office of Postsecondary Education’s
athletic budget info used for Title IX compliance purposes, Kyle came up with
the Red Line. The Red Line determines if you are a mid-major or not. If your
conference on average spends over $20 million on sports with at least $2
million of that directly going to men’s basketball, you are above the red line
and a major conference. Otherwise, you are a mid-major conference. During the
Mid-Majority’s history, eight conferences have met those criteria: the SEC, Big
Ten, Big 12, ACC, PAC 12, Big East, Mountain West, and Conference USA. The
Other 24 are your mid-majors.
But
Kyle is not doing the Red Line next year for the Mid-Majority’s final season.
We have to come up with our definitions, which is hard. So I have calculated
the Red Line for next year based on new OPE data and conference realignment.
Here is what we have:
Conference Athletic
Spending MBB Budget
1. Big Ten $81.9 M $6.7 M
2. Southeastern $81.5
M $7.0 M
3. Big 12 $75.7 M $7.2 M
4. Atlantic Coast $66.9
M $7.0 M
5. Pac-12 $66.3 M $5.4 M
6. American Athletic $48.7 M $6.0 M
7. Mountain West $29.7
M $2.7 M
8. Conference USA $24.4 M $2.5 M
9. Ivy $24.3
M $0.9 M
10. Big East $23.7
M $6.6 M
11. Mid-American $22.7
M $1.8 M
12. Colonial $20.9
M $2.0 M
13. Patriot $19.9
M $1.7 M
14. West Coast $19.6
M $3.1 M
15. Atlantic 10 $19.0
M $3.3 M
16. Sun Belt $16.5
M $1.4 M
17. Big West $16.4
M $1.6 M
18. America East $15.1
M $1.2 M
19. Missouri Valley $14.9 M $2.6 M
20. Southern $14.1
M $1.4 M
21. Big Sky $13.9
M $1.2 M
22. Big South $12.3
M $1.3 M
23. Summit $12.3 M $1.3 M
24. Northeast $12.1
M $1.5 M
25. Metro Atlantic $12.1
M $1.7 M
26. Western Athletic $11.5 M $1.5 M
27. Horizon $11.2
M $1.9 M
28. Ohio Valley $10.8
M $1.2 M
29. Atlantic Sun $9.7
M $1.2
M
30. Southland $9.5
M $1.0
M
31. MEAC $8.8 M $1.0 M
32. Great West/Independents/NJIT $8.2 M $1.4 M
33. SWAC $7.0 M $0.7 M
There
are a few things to explain particularly that middle section. Conference
realignment has been particularly bad the past year, with schools seeking their
own piece of what Kyle called the “Sports Bubble”. They are chasing better television
contracts and more revenue with new conferences, only to often end up in homes
similar to their old places. The extra money spent on such moves with little
reward in the future could cause the Sports Bubble to burst for these greedy
universities who have lost direction in college athletics. Here is the full
list of moves I am accounting for, listed by the highest spending conferences
to the lowest. Note that some moves that don’t go into effect for another year
are not included (such as Louisville to the ACC, as well as Maryland and
Rutgers to the Big Ten).
1.
Big Ten
Leaving: None
Entering: None
2.
SEC
Leaving: None
Entering: None
3.
Big 12
Leaving: None
Entering: None
4.
ACC
Leaving: None
Entering: Notre Dame, Pittsburgh,
Syracuse
5.
PAC 12
Leaving: None
Entering: None
6.
American Athletic
Leaving: None as conference is
newly formed from old football playing members of Big East. Core members going
from Big East to AAC are Louisville, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida, and
Cincinnati.
Entering (non-Big East): Memphis,
SMU, Temple, Central Florida, Houston
7.
Mountain West
Leaving: None
Entering: San Jose State, Utah
State
8.
Conference USA
Leaving: Central Florida,
Houston, SMU, Memphis
Entering: UT San Antonio,
Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Florida
International, Old Dominion, Charlotte
9.
Ivy
Leaving: None
Entering: None
10.
Big East
Leaving: Louisville, Connecticut,
Rutgers, South Florida, and Cincinnati to split and form American Athletic;
also leaving are Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame.
Entering: Butler, Xavier,
Creighton
11.
Mid-American
Leaving: None
Entering: None
12.
Colonial
Leaving: George Mason, Old
Dominion, Georgia State
Entering: College of Charleston
13.
Patriot
Leaving: None
Entering: Boston University,
Loyola (MD)
14.
West Coast
Leaving: None
Entering: Pacific
15.
Atlantic 10
Leaving: Temple, Charlotte,
Butler, Xavier
Entering: George Mason
16.
Sun Belt
Leaving: Florida International,
North Texas, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee State
Entering: Texas State, UT
Arlington, Georgia State
17.
Big West
Leaving: Pacific
Entering: None
18.
America East
Leaving: Boston University
Entering: UMass-Lowell
19.
Missouri Valley
Leaving: Creighton
Entering: None
20.
Southern
Leaving: College of Charleston
Entering: None
21.
Big Sky
Leaving: None
Entering: None
22.
Big South
Leaving: None
Entering: None
23.
Summit
Leaving: UMKC
Entering: Denver
24.
Northeast
Leaving: Quinnipiac, Monmouth
Entering: None
25.
Metro Atlantic
Leaving: Loyola (MD)
Entering: Quinnipiac, Monmouth
26.
WAC
Leaving: UT San Antonio, Texas
State, UT Arlington, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Utah State, Denver
Entering: UMKC, Grand Canyon, Cal
State-Bakersfield, Utah Valley, Chicago State, UT Pan American
27.
Horizon
Leaving: None
Entering: None
28.
Ohio Valley
Leaving: None
Entering: None
29.
Atlantic Sun
Leaving: None
Entering: None
30.
Southland
Leaving: None
Entering: Houston Baptist, New
Orleans, Incarnate Word, Abilene Christian
31.
MEAC
Leaving: None
Entering: None
32.
Great West/Independents
Leaving: Cal State-Bakersfield,
New Orleans, Houston Baptist, UT Pan American, Utah Valley, Chicago State
Entering: None (note: NJIT is last remaining team in
Division I not affiliated without an auto-bid conference)
33.
SWAC
Leaving: None
Entering: None
So
there you have it. Maybe that’s why Kyle did not want to do the Red Line this
year! Under Kyle’s old rules, both halves of the Big East (the AAC and the New
Big East) stay above the Red Line. And nobody goes below the Red Line, not even
a weakened Conference USA! The Colonial is still below the Red Line, since as
Kyle said last year “on the Red Line is not over it”. But the CAA would have
been just over it had George Mason not defected a couple weeks ago. It is hard
to believe a conference hit hard by realignment still tightly walks along the
Red Line. The CAA numbers are propped up by James Madison (a threat to defect
to the Sun Belt) and Delaware, as well as the hockey budget of Northeastern.
But
what do we do about Conference USA and the New Big East? Technically, they
should both be over the Red Line. But in the past, Kyle’s numbers always neatly
divided the conferences that were all on one side of the Red Line or the other
when ranked on athletic spending. But the Ivy League spends more on sports than
the New Big East, but obviously is a mid-major with the second lowest men’s
basketball budget in Division I. So perhaps we should raise the bar to $25
million on sports and $2.5 million for men’s basketball. After all, the arms
race of college sports in chasing the Sports Bubble has left conferences like
Conference USA behind. We would have a nice and neat Red Line if we did that.
But at the same time, C-USA is also chasing after money with big spending
towards FBS football. These schools have lots of money, and whether or not they
are successful is not what defines a mid-major.
Along
that line, you might be able to call the New Big East a mid-major. After all,
the Ivy League spends more on sports than they do, as does a weakened Conference
USA! No member in this new alignment has FBS football (Butler and Georgetown
have non-scholarship football, while Villanova is competitive in FCS football).
All the money they have practically goes to men’s basketball, a whopping 28
percent of the total conference budget. But at the same time, few conferences
and schools can equal these bloated hoops budgets in the New Big East. The New
Big East spends more than their old counterparts left in the AAC, and even more
than the Pac-12! And the New Big East is only an average of $600,000 behind the
Big 12 for the highest spending conference in men’s basketball! How can that
possibly be called a mid-major, with powerhouses like Georgetown and Marquette
playing in NBA arenas throughout the North? So I would like feedback from
whatever readers we may have here. Either in the comments section here or on
Twitter @HPUFan, let me know if the Big East and Conference USA should be
considered above or below the Red Line. As we prepare for the final season at
the Mid-Majority, we need to have a good definition of what constitutes a
mid-major so we do not have these conversations during the 2013-14 basketball
season.
Just
remember, this is all about money. And I have concluded that Kyle is probably right
that overall athletic spending is more important than men’s basketball
spending. I know Kyle hates people filling out brackets, but I filled out a few
on ESPN as a means of testing what is important for success. I did one bracket
where I always picked the team that spends more on athletics, and one where I
always picked the team that spends more on men’s basketball. I rooted against
these brackets, hoping they would fail. But they did reasonably well. Picking
teams based solely on men’s basketball spending would land you in the top half
in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge. And picking teams based solely on athletic
spending would nearly put you in the top 30 percent. And midway through the
regional finals, that bracket based on nothing but athletic spending was in the top one percent of all brackets!
That shows you how big money is unfortunately. And the New Big East does not
have a lot of it. But they do have more than all of the traditional mid-major
conferences, and they spend it largely on basketball. And you can bet that the
athletic budgets of recent mid-major powers Creighton, Butler, and Xavier will
all go up once they get some of the money from the new television deal with Fox
Sports. And when that happens, there might be no doubt whose side of the Red
Line the Big East is on. But right now it could go either way.
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